Apple may become world’s largest smartphone brand by early 2024

Apple could see a rebound in its stock price ahead of new product announcements in September and could become the world’s largest smartphone brand by 2023-2024, leading Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said on Monday. Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, a financial services group in the Asia-Pacific region, said that Apple’s latest iPhone shipment target for 2024 is 250 million units.

“A reasonable 2024 iPhone shipment estimate, from my view, could reach 5-10 percent YoY. Since Samsung’s internal view of 2024 market demand is still conservative, Apple will likely remain the largest smartphone brand in 2024,” he predicted.

Samsung’s smartphone shipments have been cut to 220 million units this year.

“If Apple keeps the 2H24 iPhone orders unchanged, then the iPhone shipments are expected to reach 220–225 million units in 2023, surpassing Samsung as the largest smartphone brand. This shipment ranking has a long-term positive impact on Apple’s ecosystem,” Kuo further said.

The market is concerned that iPhone 15 shipments will be further cut due to supply chain issues (my estimate of 80 million units vs. conservative views of 70–80 million units), especially iPhone 15 Pro Max shipments will be delayed. “However, the fact is that the iPhone 15 Pro Max will start mass shipments this week, and Apple is also increasing shipments of legacy models simultaneously,” said Kuo.

With the market being overly conservative on iPhone/iPhone 15 2H24 shipments, leading to a correction in the stock price and a favourable trading sentiment for new product announcements, Apple stock may have a rebound opportunity in the near term, he added.

Apple is all set to launch its next generation of iPhones next month. According to the speculation, there will be four iPhone models this time, as well, namely, iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15 Pro Max. Although, a few reports even suggest Apple might call the most expensive in the series the iPhone 15 Ultra. That is based on reports that suggest radical changes coming to the top-tier iPhone models. Not only the upcoming iPhone 15 Pro series will have the fastest processor and better cameras, they could also be what we believe the first iPhone models to feature a USB-C port and an extra solid-state button.